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Emerald Holding, Inc. (EEX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $106.8m (+5.2% YoY) with diluted EPS of $0.03; Adjusted EBITDA was $33.1m ($32.6m ex-insurance). Revenue growth was driven by $6.1m organic growth and $4.8m from acquisitions, partially offset by scheduling shifts and discontinued events .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q4 revenue modestly missed ($106.8m vs $108.1m*) while EPS was essentially in line/slightly above ($$0.036$ vs $$0.035$*). Drivers included scheduling adjustments and portfolio pruning that shifted revenue timing while improving mix .
  • FY 2024 guidance was lowered in Q3 to “at least” $400m revenue and $100m Adjusted EBITDA, which the company delivered; FY 2025 guidance introduced at $450–$460m revenue and $120–$125m Adjusted EBITDA, including ~$40m revenue and ~$15m EBITDA contributions from two acquisitions announced post-quarter .
  • Capital allocation and catalysts: $8.4m buybacks in Q4 (1.78m shares at $4.68), a $0.015 quarterly dividend maintained, and a refinancing to a $515m term loan (maturing 2032) lowering spreads to SOFR+375 bps; management targets 2025 free cash flow >$50m per Q&A .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “2024 was a transformative year… strategically optimize our portfolio… stronger, more resilient future” (CEO). Organic revenue increased +$6.1m in Q4; FY organic revenues were +$21.3m YoY .
    • Two strategic acquisitions (This is Beyond; Insurtech Insights) diversify into luxury travel and insurance technology; expected FY25 contribution ~$40m revenue and ~$15m Adjusted EBITDA; funded with cash and future performance-based earn-outs .
    • Refinancing: Upsized to $515m term loan, revolver extended; spreads cut to SOFR+375 (from +500), improving flexibility and lowering financing costs. Net leverage at 1.9x at YE; pro forma <3.0x with acquisitions .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Adjusted EBITDA declined in Q4 (-7.5% YoY) to $33.1m; ex-insurance $32.6m vs $35.8m prior year, due to integration costs and non-recurring items; however, FY Adjusted EBITDA increased to $101.7m .
    • Content segment softness continued; management cited advertising headwinds, causing a low-to-mid single-digit million shortfall vs earlier expectations in 2024 (Q3 call) .
    • Revenue timing headwinds from scheduling adjustments and discontinued events; Q4 growth offset by -$3.7m scheduling and -$1.9m prior-year revenue from pruned events (Q4 PR) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$86.0 $72.6 $106.8
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.03) $(0.05) $0.03
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(2.8) $(11.1) $5.1
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$6.4 $(4.7) $20.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$15.3 $12.5 $33.1
Adjusted EBITDA ex-insurance ($USD Millions)$15.3 $12.5 $32.6
S&P Global Consensus vs ActualQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$87.0*$79.7*$108.1*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$86.0 $72.6 $106.8
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$(0.165)*$(0.040)*$0.035*
EPS Actual (Primary EPS, S&P) ($USD)$(0.021)*$(0.017)*$0.036*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Connections$75.0 $62.4 $94.3
Content$5.9 $4.9 $7.3
Commerce$5.1 $5.3 $5.2
Total$86.0 $72.6 $106.8
KPIsQ4 2023Q4 2024
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$15.6 $20.6
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$2.1 $2.2
Free Cash Flow excl. insurance ($USD Millions)$13.5 $17.9
Shares Repurchased (Q4)—1,776,884 ($8.4m at $4.68/share)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (YE) ($USD Millions)—$194.8
Deferred Revenues (YE) ($USD Millions)—$190.5

Notes:

  • Non-GAAP adjustments in Q4 included: $1.0m intangible impairment; $3.6m combined non-recurring acquisition, integration, legal/audit/consulting costs; and $0.5m event cancellation insurance proceeds .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$415–$425m (Q2 PR) At least $400m (Q3 PR) Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2024$110–$115m (Q2 PR) At least $100m (Q3 PR) Lowered
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$450–$460m (Q4 PR/presentation) New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$120–$125m (Q4 PR/presentation) New
Dividend per ShareQ4 2024Initiated $0.015 (Aug 2024) $0.015 (Oct 29 declaration) Maintained
Dividend per ShareQ1 2025—$0.015 (Feb 25 declaration) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/technology initiativesQ2: testing AI to personalize marketing; scale in 2025 . Q3: continued internal AI tests .Discussed primarily in context of Insurtech and portfolio innovation; AI noted as insurance tech driver .Stable focus; execution building.
Tariffs/macroQ3: China headwinds, diversifying international; >50 agents .Built-in tariff risk in guidance; international ~10% of revenue; China/Canada ~2% each; 36% of annual international already staged YTD .Emerging risk but de-risked by low exposure.
Portfolio optimizationQ2: reaffirmed guidance, ongoing optimization . Q3: discontinued 20 events; lowered FY24 guidance .Accretive acquisitions; pruning improves mix; luxury and tech exposure up; gift/home down .Positive mix shift.
Venue construction impactsQ3: Las Vegas Convention Center construction impacted events .LVCC construction ongoing; customer experience to improve post-completion; issues expected to fade in 2026 .Near-term headwind; longer-term tailwind.
Capital allocationQ2: dividend restart ($0.015) . Q3: buyback program extended to $25m .Q4 buybacks $8.4m; dividend maintained; 2025 FCF expected $50m+ .Continued disciplined returns.
Regulatory/legal—Morocco antitrust review for This is Beyond; expected Q2 close .Pending; low risk per management.

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “2024 was a transformative year… Each step has laid the groundwork for a stronger, more resilient future, driven by a diversified business mix and a foundation for sustained growth and profitability” .
  • CEO on acquisitions: “These strategic acquisitions expand and diversify our portfolio… positioning Emerald as the industry leader while creating lasting value” .
  • CFO: “Our full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA results aligned closely with expectations… refinancing our term loan… well-positioned for a solid year ahead” .
  • CFO on FY25 outlook: “We anticipate Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $450–$460m and $120–$125m, respectively… implies a 200-basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin to 27%” .
  • CFO on capital returns: “Bought back ~1.8 million shares for $8.4 million… quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Acquisition funding and earn-outs: Both deals funded with cash; deferred performance-based payments through 2028; EPS accretive profile expected .
  • Seasonality and pacing: Acquisitions have no Q1 events, shifting revenue weighting modestly from Q1 to Q2; overall dynamic unchanged .
  • Synergies: FY25 guidance is pre-synergies; UK consolidation and US opportunities likely from 2026 onward .
  • Free cash flow conversion: With FY25 EBITDA guidance, management targets >$50m free cash flow; refinancing lowers spreads to SOFR+375 bps .
  • Macro/tariffs and LVCC construction: International revenue is ~10%; China/Canada ~2% each; LVCC construction to end in 2025, improving customer experience from 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Revenue modest miss ($106.8m vs $108.1m*); EPS essentially in line/slightly above ($$0.036$ vs $$0.035$*). Mix optimization and scheduling adjustments drove timing of revenue; insurance proceeds ($0.5m) aided Adjusted EBITDA .
  • Q3 2024: Revenue missed ($72.6m vs $79.7m*), EPS beat (actual $$-0.017$ vs $$-0.040$*), reflecting pruning of underperforming events and content weakness .
  • Q2 2024: Revenue slightly below ($86.0m vs $87.0m*), EPS significantly better (actual $$-0.021$ vs $$-0.165$*), supported by cost management and mix .
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Portfolio quality improving: pruning low-margin events and adding higher-growth luxury travel and insurtech assets should lift mix and margins into 2025–2026 .
  • Near-term revenue timing noise vs long-term compounding: Scheduling shifts and discontinued events compress some quarterly optics but enhance FY trajectory and margin resilience .
  • Capital structure and returns: Refinancing lowers cost of capital; buybacks and dividend indicate confidence in cash flow; management guides FY25 FCF >$50m .
  • Risk posture manageable: Limited international exposure (~10% of revenue), tariff risks embedded in guidance, LVCC construction set to abate with customer experience benefits in 2026 .
  • Estimates likely to recalibrate: FY25 contributions from acquisitions ($~40m revenue, $~15m EBITDA) and margin expansion ambitions suggest upward revisions to outer-period EBITDA while quarterly seasonality may shift Q1/Q2 weighting .
  • Trading lens: Post-quarter catalysts include acquisition closings (This is Beyond), confirmation of tariff impacts, and pacing updates into H1 2025; stock may react to evidence of margin uplift and FCF conversion consistency .